Who Won In Football Last Night latest 2023

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Football Pools – Some Basic Elements in a Strategy to Optimise Your Chances

Results on a particular football pools coupon/match number are random, but on individual matches where team strengths are measured and compared, in circumstances I will identify, they are not random.

Let’s compare Pools with Roulette. Many would view roulette as a game of random chance. Of course not, at least from the casino’s point of view. The ‘House’ – ie the casino – has an advantage. In Europe, this advantage is 2.70%, fixed by law, but this is all that is necessary in the long term to ensure that the House makes a profit.

So, the fundamental approach to winning in football pools is to ensure that you have an edge – that is, the odds of winning are slightly skewed in your favor over peers.

In general, football teams play broadly to form, although not all results are in-form, which makes it work for football pool companies. I argue that it is possible to identify a strategy that optimizes the odds of winning.

Of course, to win the “jackpot” on UK football pools – absolute maximum prize – you must have 8 draws online and there should only be 8 draws on the coupon, and of course you should be the only one to have that line that week. The odds are very long – just picking 8 draws from 16 games has odds of 451 million to 1.

So what are the basic elements of a strategy to improve your chances of winning?

An element is how the entry is placed. Plans and specific perms are important. These are the ways to enter multiple lines on the weekly entry, offering different levels of ‘hedging’ and ‘collateral’, which should be measured against your budget and risk attitude. It’s a whole subgenre in its own right, with many proponents of both causes, and many arguments too. Strong cases on either side – and that usually means the difference is marginal, with plans offering specific, limited warranties and full permissions offering a 100% guarantee (provided you’ve selected 8 sweepstakes in your entry) but fewer matches covered for a given budget.

Just as the house has a long-term advantage in roulette, it’s important to see winning football pools as a potential long term opportunity. This leads to the need to persevere. The week you didn’t make them could have been the week you won. You must persist. A “percentage” approach is essential. Thus, perseverance is a second element of the strategy.

Finally, one of Sun Tzu’s directives, in essence, was to always fight in territory you have chosen. If we think about our analogy with the casino, then would the casino open the roulette table on a night when its statistical advantage was absent?

Probably not, although they can see it in a long-term context and to keep their customers happy. After all, big wins are good for their marketing even if they’re not good for their profits.

So, to maximize your long-term pool advantage, don’t waste your stake on competitions where there’s less chance of teams playing to form, for example the FA Cup (to take a UK example). Unless, of course, you want to do it for fun! After all, many gamblers play roulette just for fun and don’t seriously expect to win. This is another key element of the strategy.

Finally, I alluded to form in the first paragraph. This is the last piece of the strategic puzzle. Identify a way to measure the form of play of the teams. You are then able to compare form ratings match by match and rule out obviously one-sided matches. This is the most important factor of the strategy.

So, in summary, some basic elements of a strategy to maximize your chances boil down to:

1. Use plans or perms that maximize the coverage of your selection, within your budget.

2. Take a long-term view and persevere.

3. Be selective about the weeks you play pools, to maximize the likelihood of teams playing to form.

4. Use a selection approach that measures team performance and in comparison allows you to weed out matches or obviously one-sided matches.

These are the four main elements of a strategy to maximize the odds in your favor.

Copyright (c) 2009 Phil Marks

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