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Gab Session – The Maddest Of Marches

How great will this NCAA Men’s College Basketball Tournament be?

I mean sure the George Mason thing was awesome last year, and let’s not forget Wichita St. and Bradley got to the Sweet 16, LSU shocked Duke, Kansas lost in the first round for the second consecutive year, a #14 seed (Northwestern St.) shocked a No.3 (Iowa), and the No.2 Tennessee needed a buzzer-beater to avoid losing to No.15 Winthrop.

Heck, we might not even have that many upsets this year, and I can pretty much guarantee you that no one from the Colonial Athletic Association makes the Final Four. But a combination of factors will come together and make this year one of the toughest years to fill in your job. Here’s why:

Freshmen! Over the past decade, guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant would have jumped straight to the NBA, but now they’re playing at least a year of college hoop. It’s a nice surprise. Who would have thought Texas would even be in the tournament this year after losing all five starters on an Elite Eight team, let alone being a threat to go deep?

Subclasses leaving. And while that’s all well and good, you also get a lot less depth of quality in traditional central schools because their stallions don’t stay four years. It’s the great leveler: LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas, n°2 of the 2006 NBA draft), Tyrus Thomas (LSU, n°4), Rudy Gay (UConn, n°7), Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley, n° 9), Ronnie Brewer (Arkansas, #14), Cedric Simmons (NC State, #15), Shawne Williams (Memphis, #17), Quincy Douby (Rutgers, #19), Renaldo Balkman (South Carolina, #20) , Rajon Rondo (Kentucky, #21), Marcus Williams (UConn, #22), Josh Boone (UConn, #23), Kyle Lowry (Villanova, #24), Shannon Brown (Michigan St., #25) and Jordan Farmar (UCLA, #26). All of these kids left before the end of their fourth year, as one would expect Oden, Durant and others to do after 2007. This kind of continued culture of talent drain brings the little one a little closer tall guy.

Advertising for “non-traditional” schools. Fewer and fewer teams are impressed by the national television spotlight on the Big Dance. The Missouri Valley Conference gets more pubs than Britney’s lower regions these days (well, okay, it’s close), so there’s really nothing “mid-major” about the MVC. Winthrop beat Mississippi St., Old Dominion and Missouri St. on the road this year, and scared North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M (their just four losses). They may not win their first round match, but they certainly won’t be afraid of their opponent.

Who is a seed? Nobody seems to want to be No. 1 this year. A month ago it was easy: North Carolina, Florida, UCLA and Wisconsin. Then each of those schools started losing. UCLA is just out of the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. Carolina has lost three of its last six regular season games. Florida has lost three of its last five games. Wisconsin has lost two of its last three games. Now Ohio St. is the highest ranked team in the nation, but man, they’re young. Does anyone really expect them to hold out for six NCAA Tournament games? Other possibilities for seed #1: Kansas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Memphis (ew). There is not a spotless team in the group.

Either way, it should be an amazing March Madness run. No team is without flaws, and very few are without luck.

Boy, the NFL never sleeps. What do you think have been the best acquisitions so far in professional football’s free agent season?

BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Two teams made a series of moves that made them the “co-winners” of the early 2007 free agency period. The New England Patriots dropped their “team tag” thrifty” and really caused a stir in free agency. Adalius Thomas was arguably the most sought after defensive player on the market, while Wes Welker has quietly become one of the NFL’s most versatile PR/KR/WRs. They also added value to RB replacement Sammy Morris to make up for the loss of Corey Dillon. The San Francisco 49ers have also done a lot to improve their dismal secondary which ranked 26th against the pass a year ago. Nate Clements is a Pro-Bowl caliber DBm while Michael Lewis is a solid but unspectacular upgrade when it comes to safety. On offense, the Niners added Ashley Lelie, another deep receiving threat to work in QB Alex Smith’s offensive arsenal.

I’ll be asking about some specific NCAA Tournament games next week, but for now, can you give me your scheduled Final Four, pre-bracket?

BDB, BoDog.com: Ditch the Bodog punters for this one. Currently, the top four favorites to win the NCAA title are North Carolina (9/2), Florida (9/2), Ohio State (6/1), and Kansas (6/1).

And give us a few teams that will be ranked No. 9 or worse and who you think have the best chance of causing a first-round upset?

BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Well, everyone counted Gonzaga when they lost Josh Heytvelt to suspension, but you can never forget the Zags when tournament times turn around. After losing to a very tough Memphis team by just one point on Feb. 17, Gonzaga won its last five games and won the West Coast Conference tournament for the fourth consecutive season. Senior guard Derek Raivio has put this team on his shoulders and so far it’s working. Also watch out for Syracuse if they get an offer. The Orange beat Georgetown on February 26 and have won five of their last six games after struggling at the end of January.

Mavs or Suns? Suns or Mavs? I know Dallas was amazing during the regular season…do you see that translating into another trip to the NBA Finals? Does Phoenix have enough to make it this time? Can San Antonio sneak in?

BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: The teams that make it to the NBA Finals are rarely one-dimensional. Therefore, until Phoenix learns to play defense or half court, they will have doubts. Yet at 9/4 to win it all, they also have their fair share of believers. San Antonio won’t sneak up on anyone. Not with a roster that includes Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are 7/2 to make the NBA Finals and 6/1 to win the thing. It’s barely representative of flying under the radar. According to Bodog bettors, however, the team with the best shot is the Dallas Mavericks. They’re a complete team that can beat San Antonio with a stifling defense and beat Phoenix with an offensive barrage. The Mavs’ ability to play anyone’s style makes them a 1/1 favorite to make it back to the Finals and 2/1 to win the title.

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