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Late Season NFL Betting
Betting during the final week of the NFL season is not for the novice football bettor. NFL Week 17 brings chaos for many bettors every year. This is because the NFL teams are in playoff contention or are already in the playoffs with their home locked down causing serious situations where there is no motivation to win the game .
That being said, teams that have locked down the pitch at home and have nothing to gain will almost always sit their starters for the whole game or half the game at the very least. An example would be Week 17 of the 2005/2006 season in which the Seattle Seahawks opened as a minus-2 favorite at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers. Quickly the line dropped and started to go in Green Bay’s favor with a huge 7 ½ point move down to -5.5 at game time.
A better rookie wouldn’t be aware that the quarterback along with the rest of the starters and major cogs would be seated after the first or second set of the game would consider this a dream line with Seattle getting 5 .5 dots. The bettor naturally cannot contain himself and therefore throws a whopper at Seattle. But all the while, the Packers are the value play here despite having to score points. Seattle then has no motivation to win and they want to protect the health of the starters for the playoffs, which then puts them in a situation where they don’t care if they lose the game.
We hope you are better educated to think before betting on fish lines at the end of the NFL football season in the future. Always research and read game previews to find out if a team battling for playoff position has thrown in the towel or is going to sit out their starting players. This will make a huge difference and help you better explain the line, because something that will be figured out pretty quickly when betting is if it seems too real than most of the time!
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