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How To Find Elusive Football Draws
The football draw game – hard to find them isn’t it? Eight of these are essential to winning the UK soccer treble chance pool, but maybe you just want to find two or three for a specialized fixed odds bet, or a range of trebles, maybe in a league Australian, German, Spanish or Italian. Typically, in a league weekend of the UK football season and 49 games on the coupon, there will be an average of 9 football draws, and of those many will have been predictable using a good forecasting system. Scoreless football attracts an average of around 4-5 per week.
How do we find them?
Well, in the UK league season, most teams play close to ‘form’, but cup games are more of a lottery when ‘giant kills’ happen quite frequently, and best avoided if you really want to win the football pools. So, to begin with, we only bet when the odds are optimal, i.e. league matches. In fact, we don’t bet when ‘form’ is likely to be compromised – for example on Boxing Day.
With a good soccer draw prediction system, you will be able to track form and eliminate matches that are certain home wins – there could usually be 22 home wins, many of which will have been easy to predict. As for away wins, they are harder to predict and there will be, on average, 13-14 away wins on the coupon each week.
So let’s say we can predict 90% of home wins – that’s around 19 games, and maybe 50% of away wins – that’s another 7 games. So, on the coupon as a whole, with a reliable prediction system, we can expect to predict 26 matches (home and away). This leaves 23 matches, of which 8 football draws must be found.
Now with a good or permanent plan, which combines maybe 17 or 18 predictions – some plans even give coverage of 24 games, then you can see that the chances of getting 8 football draws in a row are significantly improved . Of course, using a plan means you’re sacrificing perfection to get more coverage (after all, there are 451 million ways to select 8 draws from 49 matches). You probably won’t hit the jackpot, but you will have more frequent lower value wins and should be able to make a profit.
So you can see that an effective draw prediction system is essential.
What are the key aspects of a good football draw prediction system?
Well, apart from knowing when to bet and when to avoid betting and wasting your money, you need to be able to analyze form and come up with soccer draw predictions. In terms of form, how far should we go back? How will a team that has been promoted from the Championship fare in the Premier League (and vice versa?)
Use statistics selectively
My view is that the first few weeks of the season are when we don’t get a reliable picture of form in a league division, and it takes a few weeks for the pattern to emerge. Some pundits will look at long-term patterns and suggest that some teams are home win experts, others have a good (or bad) away record. This may be useful in the final analysis, but I don’t take these things into account when looking for a football draw. So how far back should we go? Certainly not last season – I work with less than half a dozen match histories (league matches only).
Evaluate the teams
Then you need to have a consistent way of assessing a team’s performance – and that needs to take into account the strength of the opposition. This leaves you with a list of teams and performance ratings.
Now you have to watch upcoming matches and compare team ratings. Adjust home advantage and make any other adjustments you deem appropriate (new player or manager, key player injury?). Then, organize the list in order of likely match result. At one end of the list will be the most likely home wins. At the other end will be the most likely away wins. In the middle will be the juice – where we find the elusive soccer draw block.
find the juice
Then you take the middle part of the matches and, based on your budget, decide how much you will cover using your perm or plan. You can reasonably expect to win in those weeks with 11-14 draws in the results.
If we can find 60% of the draws when there are 13 or 14 in the results, then we will have 8 to 9 draws. This is where a good staking plan comes into play, to maximize your chances of getting your single line football draws.
It’s important to see that this is a percentage approach, and all you’re looking to do is stack the odds in your favor and find most of those elusive football draws. A few wins per season should net you a profit, and as always, the devil is in the details!
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