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March Madness Odds and Sports Betting Tips: How To Win in the Big Dance, NCAA Tournament
In many cases, for example, what got us the money during the regular season will make it in March, but there are plenty of new angles for the money-snapping as well.
Oppose the selection committee to Roxy and company
With the exception of the ninth seed, pointing to the eighth seed, we always like to go with the lower-seeded favorites in the higher-seeded teams. That being said, with the caveat of excluding the four aforementioned games in which the seeds could have been reversed anyway, there have been tournaments where this does not apply.
But we will more than happily put our money on line makers running superior fake seeds.
Short-term emotion, long-term talent
When we bet lines at halftime, we have a rare case of what seems too obvious to be actually true. But the public craze for betting the big chalk kept it from being a cash cow for the average Joe. Going with the No. 16 seed in the first half has certainly allowed me and my associates to make some nice changes over the years.
Before making a final decision, I watch the game on the flat, but very often I will then bet on the top seed in the second half. For the most part, the bottom seeds have guys playing in the biggest game of their lives bar none. The seniors of the team in many cases play their last organized ball game at all levels. Others have the ultimate showcase for foreign league scouts.
Finally, there isn’t a single guy on the lowest-ranked teams who hasn’t dreamed of playing in the college version of Lake Placid or being part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history.
All of these intangibles for about 20 minutes usually go a long way towards making up for the lack of talent. But over 40 minutes with infinitely more skill and depth means, as Dick Vitale would say, “Blowout City baby” in the second half.
Also, if the bottom seed keeps the game interesting for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half represents an epiphany for the side who spent the first 20 minutes more intent on playing two days later. Then the predicted bubble burst occurs.
Once the faster, deeper top seed continues that inevitable 10-0 breakout, all illusions of grandeur crumble on Squid State. The emotional roller coaster is coming down. We cash with the sixteen teams in the first half and the huge chalk in the second.
Beware of the “Guards Dominate” Trap
I hear all the time that “it’s a game dominated by the guards”. Then a conclusion to the effect, “Handicap the guards first” usually follows. This belief is not so much a myth as a matter of inductive rather than deductive reasoning.
The simple fact is that there are far more guards than there are centers, so based on pure numbers alone, there will be more guard-focused teams moving forward. Of course, there will be more guard-oriented teams whose bubble will also burst at draft time. In fact, look at the bottom of each conference and you’ll find plenty of guard-focused teams.
Truth be told, the teams that have the big men are the teams that will have the biggest lags, literally and figuratively. However, again, guard-oriented lovers don’t completely fall into a classic trap to go against. In fact, smart players handicap entire teams.
Sure, teams that have great three-point shooters are the best “shot-in-the-dark” teams on the silver line, but conversely, if they get cold, they can be great to play against in the streaks too. “pleasures”. They are high risk/high reward, but there are also high reward/low risk options.
Don’t fall in love with seniors
It’s a simple syllogism: teams with the best players win, the best players with a few exceptions don’t stay until their senior year, so the best teams aren’t loaded with seniors.
This indisputable truth becomes more so every year. I will take the talented team rather than the experienced team.
In fact, I would be wary of senior-laden favorites over a young team with a bigger advantage and nothing to lose.
Conversely, I am in no way suggesting always betting against the most experienced team. If you’re talking about a team that’s about a ten point dog (i.e. a team that isn’t completely outplayed but gets a decent number of points) there’s reason enough to bet they will cover, but not blindly.
The hypotheses of playing one’s last match at an organized ball and of showcasing oneself for the
European scouts can inspire a competitive team to fight to the finish, but I would much rather invest in a team like Arizona, short of playoff familiarity but very capable.
Fade the chic teams
One of the first questions the so-called “experts” ask after the pairings are announced is “Who will be the dark horse teams.” So often Billy Packer on a network,
Dick Vitale on another, USA Today Monday and so many media hacks and talking heads pick the same team. One year they all love Eastern Michigan, the other Princeton.
Dark horse teams have the element of surprise and the “no respect” motivator. Once all the regurgitating paparazzi have decided on the flavor of March, they’re no longer dark horses, are they?
Not only is there no element of surprise, but also what better way to ensure that his top-ranked team doesn’t overlook his opponent than to point out that the media has labeled his foe one of the potential teams of Cinderella?
In fact, sight and opponent unseen, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gonzaga, the triple wearer of the glass slipper, now becomes early causation, because for the first time, they face the burden of great expectation.
Don’t commit to betting every game
I realize that there are casual gamblers out there who bet, as I like to call it, “lunch money” on games. As long as they’re only risking the entertainment money to make sure a game interests them, it’s harmless. And there is always a book happy to help you.
However, when it comes to betting your bankroll, don’t feel like you have to bet on just any game show in your area. Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to watch the good investments. Don’t check the morning sports page to see what’s on your local channel and convince yourself that this is one of the strongest games on the board. Plus, if you choose the sports bar option, you can get a Final Four-caliber waitress. Don’t let the woman know.
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